COVID-19: UK’s R number between 0.7 and 1.1, says latest estimate

The UK’s coronavirus reproduction number – known as R – is between 0.7 and 1.1, according to the latest estimate.

The R refers to the number of people an infected person will pass COVID-19 on to.

It means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 7 and 11 other people.

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Last week it was between 0.8 and 1, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said.

The greater range is thought to be down to regional variations in the number.

The latest growth rate range is between -5% and 0%, meaning that the number of new infections is broadly flat or shrinking by up to 5% every day.

In a breakdown of the different regions of the England, some areas were seen to have a range below one – meaning the number of new infections is falling.

This included the East of England, with a range 0.7 to 0.9, London, with a range of 0.6 to 0.9, and the South East, which had a range of 0.7 to 0.9.

For the rest of the English regions the range was 0.8 to 1.1.

This comes as the ONS released statistics showing that the number of people being admitted to hospital in the UK with the coronavirus is falling.

In the week ending 24 January, COVID-19 admissions across the country fell to 33.51 per 100,000 people, down from a rate of 35.64 per 100,000.

This is the lowest admission rate for the UK in 2021 so far.

These latest numbers paint a mixed picture, but hopefully the vaccine will swing things in our favour
Analysis by Rowland Manthorpe, technology correspondent

Last week the R number was set between 0.8 and 1.0. This week it’s between 0.7 and 1.1, so it’s simultaneously fallen and risen. According to the UK’s finest scientific minds, the country’s coronavirus outbreak is getting better… but also getting worse.

If you’re unsure what to make of this – well, welcome to the club. While the lockdown appears to be working, bringing down daily cases and hospital admissions, it’s not at all clear how well it’s working. Will cases continue to fall? Or will they stabilise at a high rate – or perhaps even begin to rise again?

Based on today’s data, the answer may well be: all of the above.

In the aftermath of the first lockdown, growth rates in the UK diverged sharply. In London, they fell sharply and remained at low levels. Further north, they declined, but never fell to comfortably low levels, and then rebounded in places such as Leicester.

Today’s regional growth rates show history repeating itself. In London, the government has put the growth rate between -7 and -2. In the North East and Yorkshire it is as high as +2. The virus could be growing in the Midlands and the North West as well.

That’s why the range of today’s R rate is so large, and why it’s too soon to declare that lockdown is “working”. It may well begin to work better, but it’s more likely that will be because of the vaccine – we hope to see results from that before too long.

Over three nights, Sky News will host a series of special programmes examining the UK’s response to the pandemic.

Watch COVID Crisis: Learning the Lessons at 8pm on 9, 10 and 11 February.

(c) Sky News 2021: COVID-19: UK’s R number between 0.7 and 1.1, says latest estimate