COVID-19: Fall in coronavirus infections stalled after second lockdown ended, study finds
Written by News on 15/12/2020
COVID-19 infections fell by more than 30% during the second lockdown but then levelled off, according to a large study by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI.
The REACT-1 study tested over 160,000 volunteers in England between 13 November and 3 December as part of one of the largest COVID-19 surveillance examinations into the levels of infection in the general population.
Prevalence – or the percentage of the population affected with coronavirus at a given time – fell from an average of 1.30% in mid-October to beginning November, to an average of 0.94% during the lockdown period, meaning it fell from 130 to 94 people infected per 10,000.
“During the first half of lockdown, our study showed that infections were on a clear downward trajectory, but we’re now seeing a levelling off,” said Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial.
He explained this was driven by clusters of infections in certain regions and age groups.
“Behaviours and public health measures need to be guided by this fast-changing situation to prevent it from worsening, and everyone has a part to play in keeping this virus at bay, especially as we approach a relaxing of rules over Christmas,” he said.
While infections have fallen overall across England and the spread has slowed, there are clear differences in prevalence across the regions with rates rising in the capital.
Prevalence rose in London from 98 per 10,000 people infected in mid-November to 121 per 10,000 infected by early December, the highest prevalence after Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East.
The findings demonstrate a rise in infections among 13 to 17-year-olds. It calls for all school children aged 11 to 18 in the worst affected boroughs of London, parts of Essex and parts of Kent to be tested, whether they have symptoms or not.
Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed almost one in three people in England show no symptoms of having the virus but are still able to pass it on.
During lockdown, regional R numbers (the rate at which an infected person can pass the virus on to others) ranged from 0.60 for the West Midlands up to 1.2 for London, although the national R number was estimated at 0.96 between 13 November and 3 December.
The findings come as London joins parts of Essex and Kent in moving into Tier 3 restrictions. The government is due to review the existing tiering system on 16 December, taking into account a variety of criteria including regional prevalence, pressure on the NHS and case rates in the over 60s and in care homes.
The researchers say adherence to toughened tiering systems is critical to continue to bring down the varying regional rates of infections.
(c) Sky News 2020: COVID-19: Fall in coronavirus infections stalled after second lockdown ended, study finds
