Coronavirus: UK excess deaths could hit peak levels ‘by November’ without action

Death rates could go back to previous levels within two months if nothing is done to stop the spike in coronavirus cases.

Professor Sir Ian Diamond, the UK’s national statistician, made the warning ahead of Boris Johnson’s statement to the Commons.

Speaking to the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, Sir Ian said: “I’m very, very clear… if nothing is done, then by November on mortality, we will be back where we were.”

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He added: “We have absolutely got at the moment major increases in prevalence, largely initially amongst young people.

“What we know is that mortality is much higher amongst older people. We are now starting to see that move of prevalence into older people. Hospitalisations – still well below April – are increasing.”

At the height of the pandemic, there were more than 8,000 excess deaths in a week for which coronavirus was listed.

It came as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released new data around how different demographics were affected by the virus earlier this year.

The figures showed there were 5,330 deaths involving the coronavirus in people aged 20 to 64 in England and Wales between 9 March and 30 June.

Of those who died in the time period, seven in 10 were the result of infections caught before lockdown started according to ONS estimates.

The report also found that while the lockdown did help curb the death rates in many employment sectors, there were some that did suffer disproportionately.

Those working in care, leisure and other service sectors suffered higher fatality rates – with men coming out the worst off.

This was likely due to the fact these professions continued to work throughout the lockdown.

However, the ONS did highlight that reasons for different death rates are complex but the factors could include the level of exposure to others before and after lockdown, the ability to work from home, whether an occupation was furloughed and where someone lives.

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The report said: “During the pandemic, some occupations, such as health and social care professions, have continued to work in proximity to others; this is a factor that may explain the generally higher rates seen among such occupations.

“Other occupations, such as elementary and manual workers, are less likely to have homeworking opportunities, another possible factor.

“On the other hand, the lowest rates during lockdown may be because of certain occupations being able to work from home or because they have been furloughed.”

(c) Sky News 2020: Coronavirus: UK excess deaths could hit peak levels ‘by November’ without action